NAVIGATING CHANGE: WHAT THE NEW ADMINISTRATION MEANS FOR SOLAR

Kokosing has been a part of the changing power landscape for most of the company’s 70+ year history.

As the technology and markets have evolved over time we have continued to adapt our offerings and capabilities to these changing demands, with successful projects ranging from air-quality upgrades at conventional power stations, to ground up construction of utility-scale combined cycle natural gas plants, to the present day where our solar, energy storage and energy infrastructure projects are reshaping the ever-changing energy systems that powers our homes, buildings and factories.  

As a leading solar installer with 24 years of experience in helping our clients evaluate and deploy this technology, our knowledge of policy is as important as our technical expertise. 

As President Trump prepares to return to office in January and political control shifts in congress, many of our clients are curious about what this election means for the solar industry and, more specifically, the potential impact that changes in federal policy might have on the solar installations they are considering.   

Policy change is just part of the constantly evolving world of energy, and Kokosing has been in business for 14 presidential administrations. 

As we look ahead to the next shift in Washington, our team will continue to provide expert guidance to our clients as they navigate changing energy, tax and economic policy and the opportunities and benefits of solar and storage. 

WHAT ARE THE CURRENT FEDERAL TAX BENEFITS FOR SOLAR?

First let’s start with a review of the current policy landscape.  Listed below are some of the most popular current federal benefits directly tied to solar energy:  

Residential Federal Solar Tax Credit:

• 30% of the cost of the system (available through 2032, and then tapering down to zero in 2035) 

Commercial Federal Solar Tax Credits:

• 30% of the cost of the system (available through 2032, and then tapering down to zero in 2035) 

• 10% Bonus Credit for:  

• • Using domestic content (encourages domestic manufacturing)  

• • Projects located in an energy community (helps communities that may be impacted by a loss of jobs in traditional energy) 

Commercial Federal Grants: 

• Up to 50% additional funding through the USDA’s Rural Energy for America Program for eligible agriculture producers or rural businesses.  

LOOKING AHEAD: GOING SOLAR IN 2025

While it is never possible to predict the future, an evaluation of past shifts along with consideration of the mechanics of government can help inform a look ahead.   

Most solar policy experts are predicting significant changes under the new administration, but that these changes will take time to implement. 

Furthermore, there is an established precedent of implementing tax and policy changes in a way that protects individuals and businesses that have made decisions and investments under the current rules.   

Sometimes referred to as “grandfathering” or “safe harbor rules” most of these policy changes include mechanisms to avoid retroactive “takings” and allow businesses and markets to function even as change looms on the horizon. 

Here is what we expect for 2025:   

• Tax Credits We expect that they will remain as is for projects started in 2025, but will likely be adjusted after that 

• Bonus Depreciation Commercial clients currently benefit from accelerated depreciation for solar projects.  President Trump’s proposed economic policy included the return of 100% bonus depreciation which would significantly enhance the value of this component of solar tax incentives 

• Grant Incentives The USDA REAP Grant is funded through September 2027, however unspent or unallocated funds could be subject to an early phase out or significant adjustment 

• Tariffs President Trump’s proposed economic policy includes a significant increase in the use of tariffs on imported goods. While it is possible that this happens quickly, most expect that there will be time required to implement these changes with the impact on project economics delayed until 2026.  It is possible however that as details of planned tariffs emerge an increase in demand for solar equipment could raise prices and/or impact project schedules 

• Installation timeline We don’t foresee any impact for our existing customers currently scheduled for installation.  As the year progresses and the details of policy changes are revealed, a sharp increase in demand could impact our installation timeline as household and business clients sign up to go solar before speculated -or announced- changes would impact their projects 

Current Kokosing Solar Schedule Backlog 

Presently, we have a typical backlog of projects as homeowners and businesses have signed contracts to take advantage of the many benefits of solar and storage.  

• Current residential installation timeline: installations scheduled through early 2025 

• Current rooftop commercial installation timeline: installations scheduled through mid 2025 

• Current utility scale installation timeline: installations scheduled through 2025 and into 2026 

FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR 2026 AND BEYOND 

As we look ahead to a new administration, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the role solar plays in America’s energy strategy.  

Businesses that adopt solar lock in a portion of their operational costs, helping them stay competitive in an evolving market.

Homeowners who invest in solar will enjoy energy security and financial savings for decades to come. The core advantage of solar technology is that its “fuel” (sunshine) is free and reliable.  Billions of dollars are being invested in manufacturing plants across the country as the solar industry seeks to manufacture solar equipment in America for Americans.  

The costs, reliability and efficiencies of today’s existing solar technology are proven and accepted by the marketplace. 

Electricity demand has been rising across the economy and the accelerating demands of AI computing and data centers are forecasted to put increasing demands on the utility grid.  Distributed generation resources like solar and the load balancing services of storage can be located close to the point of use, an important advantage as the utility grid is reshaped to serve the next 100 years of energy demand.  

We believe that American innovation, resilience, and adaptability will continue to drive the growth of solar energy, no matter what policy changes may impact the speed of its growth. 

Though we certainly don’t know exactly what the future holds beyond 2025, here are the top considerations we’re watching for:  

• Tax Credits Tax credits are a policy tool popular with Republicans for decades, with today’s solar investment tax credit originally signed into law by President George W. Bush in 2005.  Most policy experts expect that the solar tax credits will be adjusted downward over time, likely through shortening the time before they begin to sunset downward. It is rumored that they may require domestic content in the future as well. 

• Grants The USDA REAP program, while popular with rural states, may be reduced to fund other economic priorities.  We could see an early phase out, a decrease in the amount of awards or elimination of the program entirely. 

• Tariffs While little is known about what the final tariffs may look like, as currently proposed the 20% across the board tariffs would increase the costs of many of the components that make up a solar project. 

• Installation timing Any of the expected changes could drive up short term demand for solar and storage projects.  Even as our team expands to serve customer demand it is possible that customers will see longer waits  

• Interest rates Monetary policy has a big impact on household and business decisions and could increase or decrease project economics and the wait for projects. 

• Domestic content requirements – we could see an increase or decrease in the current requirement for building new solar projects with domestic content (currently there is a 10% tax credit adder for commercial projects only).  Building the manufacturing infrastructure to meet rising demand takes time, so it is hoped that a change in this area would be phased in over time. 

•  Procurement of materials – the wait for transformers and commercial switchgear is sometimes one year or more.  This period could grow longer if policy changes shoot up demand in the near term as customers seek to lock in favorable policies.  

GROUPS TO FOLLOW  

The Kokosing Solar team follows local, state and national solar policy closely. Here is a list of the groups we’re getting our information from:  

• Solar Energy Industries Association 

• Green Energy Ohio  

• Amicus Solar Cooperative  

• United States Senate  

• House of Representatives 

• International Trade Commission 

Please stay in touch with us – on social media and through our email newsletter – as we communicate any updates with our followers.  

Our thousands of clients over the past 20 years understand that the simple economics of electricity generation with no ongoing fuel cost are a financial gamechanger for family and business outcomes. 

As the future of solar unfolds, our team is excited to look back at where we were in 2024 and how we guided our clients on their solar journeys during the election transition.  Kokosing Solar and the solar industry have navigated decades worth of changing policy and will continue to meet the growing energy demands of the American people. 

If you’ve been considering solar for your home or business, there’s no better time to act. By securing your solar installation now, you’ll maximize the financial benefits of the current tax credit and position yourself to enjoy long-term savings. 

Contact us today to schedule a consultation and learn how solar can empower your home or business to take control of energy costs in 2025 and beyond.